Caister Academic Press

Temporal and Spatial Dynamics of Dengue Virus Transmission

Derek Cummings
from: Frontiers in Dengue Virus Research (Edited by: Kathryn A. Hanley and Scott C. Weaver). Caister Academic Press, U.K. (2010)

Abstract

The geographical range in which dengue virus (DENV) is transmitted expanded rapidly in the latter decades of the 20th century. Within locations where dengue (DEN) is endemic, incidence varies widely from year to year, often exhibiting multi-annual cycles. At sub-national and even sub-community spatial scales, incidence varies from place to place within seasons. In this chapter, I describe the variability in DEN incidence that has been observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales and some of the mechanisms that are thought to drive this variability. The chapter is divided into three parts: statics, emergence and dynamics. In the first part of this chapter, I consider geographical patterns of DEN that have remained fairly static for decades. I describe the spatial distribution of DEN globally and mechanisms that dictate the presence or absence of endemic DEN over long time scales. In the second, emergence, I describe epidemics in which DEN has recently emerged or re-emerged, and I consider mechanisms that dictate the speed and success with which this occurs. In the third part, dynamics, I describe mechanisms that are thought to drive temporal variation in incidence within endemic settings. A key focus is on mechanisms of cycles in DEN incidence and, extending this to include space, on mechanisms that create spatial-temporal patterns in incidence, including synchrony of incidence between regions and traveling waves in incidence. Finally, I end with a discussion of the utility of determining the mechanisms that drive spatial-temporal dynamics of DEN, specifically, the improvements in public health that might be created by an understanding of these mechanisms read more ...
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